No Press Release From Walker When "Economic Growth Forecast" Freefalls to #37 | WisCommunity

No Press Release From Walker When "Economic Growth Forecast" Freefalls to #37

[img_assist|nid=484248|title=|desc=|link=none|align=left|width=300|height=281]A quick recap:  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia puts out two numbers every month, a "Coincident Index" that is a measurement of a state's economy and a "Leading Index," which is a forecast of how much the Coincident Index will change over the next six months. 

Governor Scott Walker has downplayed these numbers in the past when they (accurately) showed Wisconsin's economy was stagnant compared to the rest of the nation, but in the late summer of 2013, he was one of their biggest fans, repeatedly putting out press releases promoting both the percentage change in the Coinincident Index and the Leading Index, which forecasted in October that Wisconsin's Coincident Index would improve more than any other state over the next six months.  

, “This is just another sign that Wisconsin’s economic future looks bright.” 

The Wisconsin Manufacturing and Commerce PAC even started running ads on Walker's behalf as evidence that "Governor Walker's reforms are working!"  

In the months since that forecast, however, Wisconsin hasn't come anywhere close to living up to the sunny forecast.  The growth in the Philly Fed's Coincident Index has actually been well below the national average. In other words, the weatherman predicted sunny and clear and it ended-up raining all day. 

And now, these poor numbers have caused a freefall in the Phily Feds forecast, the Leading Index. They now predict that Wisconsin's growth in the Coincident Index to be the 37th worst in the nation.  Strangely, Governor Walker has not put out press release promoting Wisconsin's return to crappy ratings from the Philly Fed.   

Another telling aspects of the Philly Fed's Leading Index forecast is that they go back and revise the forecasts after the actual economic data comes-in. For Wisconsin, where we were once forecasted to have the largest improvement in their August forecast, that number has since been downgraded to match the actual date, which is... ummm.... not good.  Where Walker was once bragging in the October release that the "August leading index was more than double the U.S." he is now silenced by the reality that the August "forecast" has been revised to show Wisconsin had growth well below the national average.

Ironically, the Wisconsin's Philly Fed forecast has proven to be first in one category among the states:  The largest fall between forecasted and actual economic indicators.  

Published

January 2, 2014 - 12:03pm

Author