Marquette Poll: LIKELY VOTERS has Burke Trailing Walker Only 48% to 44%; Majority Disapproving of Walker | WisCommunity

Marquette Poll: LIKELY VOTERS has Burke Trailing Walker Only 48% to 44%; Majority Disapproving of Walker

According to Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin, the poll released yesterday was of 801 registered voters, with no screen in place for so-called "likely voters."

Reached by email, Franklin said that as the election nears he will switch to only releasing the responses of people that said they were "absoulutely certain" to vote or likely voters:  

"What we did in 2012 and will again this year, is to not report LV results as the vote measure until the end of the summer. We’ll include it in cross tabs so anyone can see it, but I don’t think it is a reliable basis of the vote estimate this early. Once we get to the fall, we’ll start reporting LV results as the vote measure, with the RV data also mentioned but not emphasized. I think this gives everyone the full picture but lets me use what I think is the best practice with respect to the measurement of likely voters." 

Other polls, , have released results recently for likely voters.

In the most recent Marquette poll, among those 556 that said they were "absolutely certain" to vote, the results are more palatable for Democrats:  Burke only trails by four points, 48% to 44%.  In addition, Walker's job approval numbers are upside down with 48% approving and 49% disapproving.  

Viewed through this lens, it also changes the conventional wisdom that Walker is widening his lead.  In January, Walker was leading Burke among likely voters by 12 points:  52% to 40%.  Walker's job approval numbers among likely voters were also sky-high in January:  54% to 44%.

 Also keep in mind that while Walker enjoys 91% support from Republicans, Burke is only getting 76% from Dems in the last poll.  If those Democrats "come home" as expected, that would certainly change things in Burke's favor as well. 

Published

March 27, 2014 - 2:37pm

Author

randomness